NVDA Equity Snapshot — July 2026 (Q1 FY27) | Evolve Financial

By Balaji BhaskarPublished July 10, 202610 min read

Sources: NVIDIA Q1 FY27 8-K (released May 20, 2026) · NVIDIA FY26 10-K (released Feb 25, 2026) · Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, MarketBeat, Benzinga, TipRanks (Jul 2026)

Section 0 · TL;DR

Record quarter, compressed multiple, and a Data Center segment that is now 92% of the business.

NVIDIA printed $81.6B of revenue in Q1 FY27 (up 85% YoY) with a 75.0% non-GAAP gross margin and $48.6B of free cash flow — one of the most extreme cash-generation quarters in tech history. Yet the stock trades at a 31x trailing P/E — ~41% below its 10-year median. The market is pricing sustained hypergrowth and compression risk at the same time: what's already in the price is agentic-AI capex from hyperscalers and sovereign AI. What is not: durable China revenue, ASIC displacement, or a recession-driven capex pause.

Q1 FY27 revenue

$81.6B

+85% YoY · +20% QoQ

FY26 revenue

$215.9B

+65% YoY

Consensus PT

$301.62

+48.7% implied · 59 Buy / 2 Hold / 1 Sell

Non-GAAP GM

75.0%

Guided ~mid-70s FY27

Section 1–2 · Business mix & profitability

Section 1

Revenue by segment

Q1 FY27 · new taxonomy

NVIDIA collapsed Gaming, Pro Viz, Auto and OEM into a single Edge Computing platform starting Q1 FY27. Data Center now accounts for 92.2% of revenue.

Section 2

Margin comparison

Q1 FY27 vs FY26 vs FY25

Gross margin recovered to 75.0% in Q1 FY27 after the FY26 dip caused by Blackwell ramp costs and H20-related China charges.

Section 3–5 · Investment thesis

Section 3

What's already priced in

Hyperscaler capex

MSFT / GOOG / META / AMZN combined FY26 capex north of $400B, majority to AI infra.

Blackwell ramp

Fastest architecture ramp in company history — priced as clean, on-time, on-yield.

Sovereign AI

Deployments across ~40 countries; sovereign revenue growing >80% YoY.

75% gross margin

Consensus assumes sustained mid-70s gross margin through FY27 despite Rubin transition.

Buyback capacity

New $80B authorization on top of $38.5B remaining — market expects it deployed.

No China DC

Guidance explicitly assumes zero Data Center compute revenue from China.

Section 4 · Bulls

Why it could go higher

+

Rubin generation upgrade

Vera-Rubin cited as an order-of-magnitude improvement in cost per token — extends the CUDA moat and re-accelerates ASPs.
+

Agentic AI inflection

Inference workloads are shifting from single-shot to multi-turn agents — 10-100x compute per interaction. Jensen: "computing demand is growing exponentially."
+

Vera CPU + $200B TAM

Purpose-built CPU for agentic AI opens ~$200B incremental TAM; management flagged ~$20B visibility this year.
+

Multiple re-rating room

31x P/E is 41% below 10y median of ~53x. Any beat-and-raise pattern re-opens multiple expansion.
+

Networking flywheel

Spectrum-X reportedly larger than all Ethernet peers combined; InfiniBand +4x YoY. Networking is a moat inside the moat.

Section 5 · Bears

Why it could drop

−

Customer concentration

Top 4 hyperscalers likely >50% of DC revenue. If any pauses the buildout — even for a quarter — the growth story cracks.
−

ASIC displacement

Broadcom AI revenue at ~$10.8B/qtr; Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Microsoft Maia all scaling. Custom silicon threatens GM sustainability.
−

Whisper numbers

Q2 guide of ~$91B beat consensus by ~$4B — but at 85% growth, "excellent" reads as deceleration. Beats need to be huge.
−

China policy risk

H20 charges reset FY26 margins. Any further export tightening (or retaliation) removes an option value the bulls quietly assume.
−

AI capex hangover

If cloud AI monetization disappoints in 2026-27, hyperscaler capex plans get cut. NVDA is the beta of that capex cycle.

Section 6 · Street view

Section 6

Recent analyst ratings & price targets

Consensus Strong Buy · 59 Buy / 2 Hold / 1 Sell

Firm	Analyst / Note	Rating	Price target	vs. spot	Date
China Renaissance	Initiated coverage	Buy	$319	+57.3%	Jun 5, 2026
Needham	Reiterated	Buy	$275	+35.6%	Jun 2, 2026
DA Davidson	Cautious on GM sustainability	Neutral	$295	+45.5%	Jun 1, 2026
Baird (Tristan Gerra)	Street-high · Rubin cycle	Buy	$500	+146.6%	May 21, 2026
Morgan Stanley	Top pick, raised on Q1 print	Overweight	$320	+57.8%	May 21, 2026
Goldman Sachs	Buy list	Buy	$305	+50.4%	May 21, 2026
Bernstein	Reiterated on agentic thesis	Outperform	$285	+40.6%	May 20, 2026
Deutsche Bank	Street-low · GM & ASIC risk	Hold	$215	+6.0%	Nov 20, 2025

      Consensus average: $301.62 · Range: $180 – $500 · Source: MarketBeat, Yahoo Finance, Benzinga, TipRanks (Jul 2026)
    

Section 7–8 · Multi-year trends

Section 7

Revenue trend · FY21 → FY26

$ billions

6-year revenue CAGR of ~67%. FY26 alone added $85B of revenue — larger than the entire company was in FY24.

Section 8

Free cash flow · FY21 → FY26

$ billions

FY26 FCF estimated at ~$95B (Q1 FY27 alone: $48.6B). FCF margin above 44% — rare for any company at this scale.

Section 9 · Key metrics

Section 9

Key metrics summary

Trailing 12 months

Market cap

$4.91T

EV $4.87T

Revenue TTM

$253.5B

+85% QoQ

Gross margin

74.1%

Non-GAAP 75.0% Q1

Operating margin

64.0%

FY26: 64.5%

Net margin

63.0%

GAAP

FCF TTM

$119.1B

FCF yield 2.4%

P/E TTM

31.1x

Fwd 20.4x

PEG

0.45

5y expected

P/S TTM

19.6x

EV/EBITDA 29.4x

ROE

114.3%

ROIC 104.7%

Net cash

$40.4B

D/E 0.07

Dividend

$1.00

Yield 0.49% · +25x

Buyback avail.

$118.5B

Incl. new $80B auth

Beta 5y

2.21

High vol

Shares out.

24.22B

−1.1% YoY

Next earnings

Aug 26

Q2 FY27